Saturday’s autumn features at Rosehill and Flemington have a little bit of everything emerging fillies on the rise, proven international staying quality and a weight-for-age contest that looks deep enough to shape the next phase of the carnival.
The Vinery Stud Stakes is one of those races that often tells you plenty about the staying fillies, and this year’s edition looks a particularly interesting clash of New Zealand depth and local opportunity. Ohope Wins brings the most obvious staying profile into the race after reeling off wins in the Sir Patrick Hogan Stakes, the Lowland Stakes and then the New Zealand Oaks over 2400 metres. That sequence alone gives her a strong edge on exposed stamina, and the move back to 2000 metres does not look a negative given she also owns a win at the trip. With Chris Waller training and James McDonald aboard, she has the profile of a filly arriving at exactly the right time.
She is not the only filly to bring strong form across the Tasman. Belle Cheval has done little wrong in a short career, winning three of six starts and most recently finishing second in the Kiwi after earlier victories in the Almanzor Trophy and Uncle Remus Stakes. She has not yet raced beyond 1500 metres, so the trip is the obvious question, but her overall record suggests she deserves her place among the main hopes.
Then there is Salty Pearl, who gives the race an important local formline. Her VOBIS Guineas win and consistent Melbourne form mean she comes into the Vinery with race fitness and a platform that should keep her competitive if she handles the rise to Group 1 level. She may not yet have the same staying résumé as Ohope Wins, but she looks one of those fillies capable of improving again in the right race.
If the Vinery is about potential and progression, the Tancred Stakes is about proven staying quality. It is hard to look past Dubai Honour as the class runner. William Haggas’s globetrotter returns to Rosehill with an imposing record, more than $9.6 million in prizemoney, two wins from two starts at the track and a previous victory in this race already on the page. He has won at 2400 metres, placed multiple times at the distance and, more importantly, has repeatedly shown he can absorb the pressure of elite staying races against top opposition. On exposed form, he is the benchmark.
That said, this is not a race that ends with him. Vauban has added real depth to the field and looks to have returned in strong order. His record shows wins at 2400 metres and beyond, including over extended staying trips, and his recent Sky High Stakes victory suggests he is ready to make his presence felt the former Melbourne Cup fancy. He brings a different profile to Dubai Honour perhaps not the same international polish at the very top level, but certainly enough staying strength to make him a genuine threat.
Soul Of Spain also commands respect after chasing Vauban home in the Sky High. He has already proven himself around staying trips, including a placing in the Metropolitan, and his recent Rosehill run suggested he is close to producing another major performance. Aeliana, the lone runner in the field with 56.5kg, adds further intrigue. She comes into the Tancred with a high rating and excellent recent form, and while she is taking on older, seasoned stayers, she does not look out of place.
Down in Melbourne, the Australian Cup looks one of the most fascinating races of the afternoon because there are multiple winning chances and more than one possible shape to the race. Tom Kitten heads the market on profile after his All-Star Mile win and comes into the Cup with eight wins from 31 starts, more than $7.5 million in prizemoney and a Group 1 placing at 2000 metres already on his record. He has been around the best horses for a long time, but there is a sense this preparation could be the one where he fully stamps himself as a genuine weight-for-age force at the trip.
Birdman is another who demands serious respect. He comes in off back-to-back wins, including the Peter Young Stakes, and his form at 2000 metres has become increasingly hard to knock. He might not yet carry the same star power as Tom Kitten, but he is in form, well placed and clearly thriving. Apulia also looks ready to run a big race after finishing second in the Peter Young, and from a low draw he should get every chance to make his presence felt.
And then there is Pride Of Jenni, who ensures the race will not lack theatre. Few horses in Australia are more effective when allowed to roll, and her best form has come when she takes control and forces others out of their comfort zone. Her overall record, her Group 1 victories and her ability to stretch a field make her impossible to dismiss, even in a race where there are several strong closers waiting to pounce if the tempo becomes too aggressive.
Taken together, the three races offer a strong snapshot of the carnival at this point in the season. The Vinery brings upwardly mobile fillies trying to turn promise into Group 1 status and onto Oaks status. The Tancred revolves around hard-earned staying quality and the return of an international star with unfinished Australian business. The Australian Cup, meanwhile, looks a race where class, tempo and grit will produce a top theatre finish.
By Scott Bailey
