Very little separates the leading chances ahead of Saturday’s Listed Belmont Newmarket, with the early betting market providing an accurate reflection of a sprint that appears open well beyond the early favourites.
Madhi Girl, Immortal Bliss and Repossession are all trading around the $6.00 mark, leaving punters with no obvious standout in the $125,000 feature over 1200m.
The trio brings three different form profiles into the race. Madhi Girl has the benefit of a light weight and William Pike, Immortal Bliss has already won at Listed level during the Belmont winter, while Repossession continues to perform consistently against Western Australia’s better sprinters.
However, the recent H.G. Bolton Stakes provides a strong reminder that concentrating solely on the top of the market could be dangerous.
Fluro Neuro caused a major upset when storming home from near the rear to defeat Snowdome by 0.08 lengths over the same course and distance on July 25. Final Siren was only 0.72 lengths away in third, with Madhi Girl fourth and Immortal Bliss fifth.
Less than a length covered the first five across the line, leaving several runners with a realistic opportunity to reverse the result under Saturday’s handicap conditions.
Fluro Neuro must carry the consequences of that victory. The Grant and Alana Williams-trained seven-year-old rises from 58kg to 59.5kg and again has Chloe Azzopardi aboard, but barrier one should allow him to conserve ground before making his run.
His consistency is difficult to dismiss. Fluro Neuro has recorded eight wins and 13 placings from 34 starts, including three victories over 1200m. His Belmont record is equally strong, with three wins and four seconds from 14 appearances.
The gelding also demonstrated his ability against stronger opposition when second in the Group 3 Northam Stakes earlier in the campaign. His subsequent Hyperion Stakes failure came over 1600m, and the return to sprinting produced an immediate response in the Bolton.
Snowdome lost no admirers in defeat. He travelled close to the speed and appeared ready to win before Fluro Neuro arrived in the final stride. The Neville Parnham-trained gelding remains on 59kg and should again be able to race prominently from barrier seven.
With nine wins and more than $1 million in prize money, Snowdome is one of the most accomplished runners in the field. His record at the Belmont 1200m reads a win and two seconds from three starts, making him one of the more reliable prospects despite conceding weight to most of his rivals.
The market has instead leaned towards Madhi Girl, Immortal Bliss and Repossession, and there are sound arguments for each.
Madhi Girl receives 5.5kg from Fluro Neuro and meets him 1.5kg better for finishing less than a length behind him in the Bolton. She settled midfield before being held up for ground and produced one of the better closing efforts in the race.
The Simon Miller-trained mare has built her career around speed, with all six victories coming over 1000m. That creates a legitimate question at 1200m, where she is yet to win from five attempts, but her latest performance suggests she is becoming more effective over the longer sprint distance.
William Pike retains the ride, and his experience will be important from barrier 11. If Madhi Girl can find cover without settling too far from the leaders, her 54kg allocation gives her an opportunity to finish over the top of the heavier-weighted runners.
Pike has previously won the Belmont Newmarket four times, most recently aboard Great Again in 2020, while Miller prepared successive winners First Among Equals and Meteoroid in 2016 and 2017.
Immortal Bliss has been one of the discoveries of the winter.
The Daniel Morton-trained gelding progressed from rating company to win the Listed Beaufine Stakes over 1000m on July 11, overcoming barrier 14 to defeat Twisted Steel by 0.73 lengths. He then started favourite in the Bolton and finished fifth, beaten only 0.92 lengths after racing in the second half of the field.
That defeat did little to diminish his claims. Immortal Bliss was forced to rise from 54kg in the Beaufine to 56kg in the Bolton and retains the same weight on Saturday. He has won seven of his 20 starts, including three of five first-up appearances, and has finished in the first two at four of his five Belmont starts.
Barrier 10 creates another potentially awkward map for Lucy Fiore, but his recent form shows he does not need to lead or control the race to be effective.
Repossession is the highest-rated member of the favoured trio and carries 57.5kg from barrier eight.
The five-year-old resumed with a strong third in the Beaufine, settling well back before making ground behind Immortal Bliss and Twisted Steel. That performance continued an excellent first-up record and suggested he had returned in similar order to his autumn campaign.
Repossession has won five of his 15 starts, with two victories and a third from three appearances at Belmont. The concern is that all five of his wins have come over 1000m, and he remains winless from four attempts at 1200m.
His record at the distance is better than that statistic initially suggests. He finished second to Cessation in the Listed Joey Stakes at Ascot during April and was beaten by less than a length. If Brad Parnham can settle him within striking distance, the additional 200m should not be considered an insurmountable obstacle.
The depth of the race extends well beyond those at the head of betting.
Final Siren nearly stole the Bolton after controlling the race from the front. He meets Fluro Neuro 1.5kg better and draws barrier six, giving Shaun McGruddy another opportunity to take up a prominent position.
Twisted Steel was runner-up in the Beaufine before disappointing as favourite in the Bolton. He remains on 54kg but must overcome barrier 13, while Jaz Session could improve sharply after racing below her best from the outside draw last time. The latter returns to barrier two and has three wins from seven starts over 1200m.
Twain’s Angel is another runner whose recent finishing positions do not reflect her best ability. She has eight wins from 16 appearances at 1200m and three victories from four attempts over the Belmont course and distance. Her four starts on soft ground have also produced four wins, making any rain an important factor in her favour.
Even Yonga Lass has a historical point of interest through jockey Paul Harvey, who holds the Belmont Newmarket riding record with seven victories. The mare’s recent form must improve considerably, but her presence adds another layer to a race with no shortage of proven stakes performers.
First staged in 1945, when Lord Treat won the first of consecutive editions, the Belmont Newmarket has developed into one of the established sprint features of the Perth winter. Saturday’s renewal carries Listed status and $125,000 in prize money, with a field of 13 assembled for the 1200m handicap.
The market may favour Madhi Girl, Immortal Bliss and Repossession, but none arrives without a question to answer.
Madhi Girl must prove she is as effective at 1200m as she is at 1000m. Immortal Bliss needs to rebound after his Bolton defeat, while Repossession is also attempting to record his first victory beyond the minimum trip.
Behind them sit the Bolton winner, its narrow runner-up, a lightweight leader and several runners capable of improving sharply.
That balance of exposed form, weight swings and tactical uncertainty makes the Belmont Newmarket one of the most even Listed races of the winter and a contest in which the winner may remain well concealed until the final stages.
By Scott Bailey – iRACE
