Punters looking for a profitable afternoon at the Vaal on Thursday 17 September should keep Philasande Mxoli and Calvin Habib firmly on their side.
Both riders endured frustrating afternoons at the same venue last Thursday, but the nine-race programme offers ample opportunity for redemption. Between them, they hold the key to several of the day’s most appealing betting propositions.
Mxoli was agonisingly close to a winner last Thursday, with his six rides producing three seconds, a third and a fourth. He returns with seven mounts and looks capable of turning those near misses into winners.
His best chance comes aboard the rapidly progressive Mission To Mars for Stuart Pettigrew in Race 6 over 2000m. Mxoli has partnered the Northern Hemisphere-bred son of Sea The Stars in all three starts and has seen him improve dramatically with each outing.
A fast-finishing second over 1500m on debut was followed by a spectacular 1600m maiden victory, when Mission To Mars powered clear to score by more than 10 lengths. He then confirmed that promise by landing a handicap over this trip in his latest start, off an opening mark of 86.
An eight-point penalty is the obvious concern, but the manner of that victory suggests there is plenty more to come. Mission To Mars is taken to complete the hat-trick.
Mxoli’s other major betting opportunity comes in Race 9, the Pinnacle Stakes over 1000m, where he partners Karate Kid.
The consistent speedster was a creditable third under 60kg in the Listed Spring Spree Stakes over 1200m last time, but his record tells the more important story: four of his five career victories have come over 1000m.
Back over the shorter trip, reunited with Mxoli and carrying just 54kg, Karate Kid has conditions in his favour. In a competitive contest, he looks an appealing eachway proposition.
Habib, meanwhile, has several opportunities to erase last week’s blank.
Polly Plummer could get him off the mark in Race 2 over 1200m. The Erik The Red filly showed enough in three juvenile appearances last season, all under Habib, to suggest she can make a winning three-year-old debut. She finished second over this course and distance first time out and need only reproduce that form to break her maiden.
Habib then switches to Redlightgreenlight for Tony Peter in Race 4 over 1600m. The runner arrives with highly relevant form, having won a similar contest over this course and distance last month. A two-time winner over the track and trip, Redlightgreenlight can again have the measure of familiar rival Unsolved Riddle despite conceding a 2kg swing in the weights.
Habib’s third standout ride is Cartagena in Race 5 over 2400m. The Heather Adamson-trained mare has won twice and placed twice from five attempts over this course and distance. One of the joint best-weighted runners, she has a strong opportunity to turn her course familiarity into another victory.
Clive Robinson
