The Goodwood has long been and is South Australia’s greatest sprint race. and this Saturday’s edition has all the right ingredients for a proper Group 1 contest. Previous winners include the globe trotting star Takeover Target and one of Australia’s greatest ever in Black Caviar.
Run over 1200 metres at Morphettville, the $1 million Goodwood has brought together a deep field of seasoned sprinters, emerging talents and runners coming through the key lead up races. It is a race with genuine pressure, plenty of different form lines and enough market interest to suggest punters are still working out where the value sits.
One of the key chances Rey Magnerio was a scratching on Thurdsay due to elevated blood levels. He was the early favourite so this opens up the race even more now. One of the biggest talking points will be the barrier draw. In a Goodwood with this much depth, luck in running is going to play a major part. Several key chances have drawn awkwardly, while others have landed gates that could make their task a lot more straightforward.
At the top of betting, the support has come for Flying For Fun and it is easy enough to see why. Bryce Heys has booked Zac Lloyd who retains the ride, and that alone adds plenty of confidence around her chances. She was terrific in the Robert Sangster when flashing home into fourth, beaten just 0.10 lengths behind Geegees Mistruth. The barrier is the interesting part. From gate 10, she will need the race to unfold properly, but she also looks the type of mare who can be ridden with patience and saved for one strong late surge.
There is a sense that the market has latched onto the right profile. She is a mare with a strong turn of foot, she has already measured up in Group 1 company and she gets in with 54 kilograms. The Goodwood can often suit the horse that gets the right smother into the race and finishes hard late, and Flying For Fun looks to have that exact pattern if Zac Lloyd can find the right back to follow.
Grand Larceny is another major player and looks one of the more progressive horses in the field. He was strong winning the Hawkes Stakes at this track on 25 April, beating Watchme Win and New York Lustre, and that form has a big influence on this race. The concern is barrier 14. He has the talent and the upside, but Ben Melham will need to make a decision early, either press forward and risk covering ground, or go back and rely on tempo.
Watchme Win deserves respect as the local hope with strong Morphettville credentials. He has had 11 starts at the track for four wins and four placings, and his last two runs have been excellent. He was second to Super Smink in the R N Irwin Stakes and then second again to Grand Larceny in the Hawkes Stakes. Barrier 12 is not ideal, but he is honest, race fit and proven at the course.
Super Smink also has a winning chance on her best form, but barrier 13 makes things tricky. She beat Watchme Win in the R N Irwin before finishing midfield in the Robert Sangster. That Sangster run was not poor, and coming back to this race she gets the chance to bounce back, but Jacob Opperman will need to give her a smart ride from the draw but he knows her well.
Tycoon Star adds a strong three-year-old angle. He won the Tobin Bronze impressively over this track and distance, and he has the right racing style to make his own luck. The big negative is barrier 16. He has tactical speed, but from out there he may have to do early work to find a position. If he gets across cheaply, he can run well. If he is posted wide, the final 200 metres could tell.
Talkanco is the lightweight runner who could easily be underestimated. She was third in The Quokka behind Jigsaw and Rey Magnerio, and that gives her a very strong reference point. The barrier draw has been a big help, with gate 2 and only 51.5 kilograms giving Lucy Fiore the chance to be economical, save ground and look for the gaps late.
Extragalactic is the other lightweight with upside. She has only had six starts and was second to Tycoon Star in the Tobin Bronze. This is a sharp rise in grade, but with 50 kilograms and barrier 6, she has drawn to get a much softer run than some of the better fancied runners. That gives her a chance to outperform her price.
Meridius has also drawn well in barrier 1 and could get the type of soft run that brings him into exotics. He is a last start Group 3 placegetter over 1400 metres and has won at 1200 metres, so if the inside section is holding up, he can get every possible chance from the draw. It would be a fitting win for the former South Australian trainer Lloyd Kennewell winning a Group 1 feature in his home state.
The Goodwood looks a terrific betting race because there are so many different angles. Flying For Fun has the market support, the Zac Lloyd booking and the Group 1 last start flashing light. Grand Larceny has the winning Morphettville lead up but must overcome barrier 14. Watchme Win has the local profile but also draws wide. Talkanco has the lightweight and barrier 2.
For mine, barriers Talkanco particularly dangerous, while Flying For Fun still looks the horse with the right set up if they run along at a genuine tempo. The market move makes sense, and with Zac Lloyd booked to ride, she gets her chance to turn a narrow Group 1 defeat into a Group 1 win.
By Scott Bailey
