Don’t be fooled by the modest look of Thursday’s seven-race Inside track card at Turffontein.
This is the kind of weekday meeting that rewards sharp punting and a willingness to side with form, fitness, and familiarity. In that regard, all roads point to apprentice ace Blaine Marx-Jacobson.
The young rider has quietly edged ahead of Mxolisi Mbutho in the National Apprentice title race, and this compact programme offers him a golden opportunity to stretch that advantage. More importantly for punters, he arrives with a book that screams value rather than hype – that’s where the money is made.
Marx-Jacobson’s growing understanding with trainer Fabian Habib has become one of the more reliable angles on the Highveld. Seven winners and six places from their last 25 runners together tells its own story, this is a partnership worth following blind, especially in races lacking depth.
Their first major play comes in Race 3 with Samuel Sharpe, an improving son of Flower Alley who looks ready to peak over this longer trip. His last start, a career-best third over 1800m, had the right kind of shape, staying on with purpose under the same rider. The extra meters now looks a plus, not a query, and with the 2.5kg claim factored in, he rates as one of the better bets on the card at what should be a workable price.
The stable elect to double up with in Race 5 is Oklahoma Smokeshow, and the case is just as compelling. This son of Erik The Red was caught late when second over 1450m in stronger company last time, but lost nothing in defeat after doing the donkey work up front. Dropping in grade off the same mark is the key angle. If Marx-Jacobson controls the tempo again, this could turn into a one-horse race late. He’s a confident inclusion for all exotics and a solid win play.
Away from the Habib yard, there’s further value to be found in the lucky last where Craig Zackey partners Mattiazo for David Nieuwenhuizen. This mare’s last run can be marked up significantly as she finished a close-up fourth over the same trip despite being found to be not striding out freely post-race. Crucially, she still finished ahead of Bay Empire, who has since franked the form with back-to-back runner-up efforts.
Now better off at the weights with that rival, Mattiazo looks poised to turn the tables decisively if returning to full fitness. She’s the kind of runner the market may underestimate, which is exactly the kind of runner bettors want on their side from an each-way angle.
In a meeting light on numbers but not on opportunity, the edge lies in trusting combinations that are firing and runners that are trending upward. Marx-Jacobson fits both categories and by the end of Thursday, his grip on the apprentice title could look a whole lot firmer.
Clive Robinson
