The nine-race Vaal meeting on Thursday 27 November sets up as the kind of programme where one rider can dictate the narrative, that rider is Gavin Lerena. With six mounts and four strong winning opportunities, Lerena is well placed to leave the track with a commanding haul and punters will likely build their bets around him.
His first major chance arrives in Race 3, where the improving Korcula should continue her progression for the thriving Johan Janse van Vuuren stable. This filly’s fast-finishing fourth over 1450m last time strongly suggests that she is crying out for more ground and she now gets it in a 1700m test that looks ideal.
The daughter of Hawwaam has been hitting the line with purpose and gives the impression that she is only beginning to understand her job. So, with Lerena and Van Vuuren combining with notable efficiency this season, Korcula looks well placed to open her account at the fourth attempt. She will be popular in the market and rightly so.
Lerena and Tony Peter link up in Race 4 where Arashi offers one of the more appealing value plays on the card. Her juvenile season included a high quality third in the Grade 2 SA Fillies Nursery behind Golden Palm, who went on to scoop Equus Champion Juvenile Filly honours.
A return-to-form third over 1200m last time confirmed that Arashi has sharpened up and she now drops in class while racing off a reduced rating in her peak outing. Furthermore, her pedigree reads as if she will enjoy the extra 200m so she should improve for the step up in trip. Arashi shapes as an attractive each-way option and is certainly capable of winning.
The main event on the card comes up in Race 7, where Alpine Jet lines up after a disappointing performance in the Listed National Colour Stakes. She was interfered with early and was later found to be coughing so that run is best ignored.
Her earlier form paints a far more accurate picture and it is encouraging that she returns off the same rating. Crucially, Lerena reunites with her having ridden her to both victory and a runner-up finish in two previous associations. She is expected to run her race this time and represents genuine value to bounce back.
Lerena’s late card highlight appears in Race 8 when he partners Vamanos on her handicap debut. This Gimmethegreenlight filly has scope and natural speed and, after winning a 1200m maiden with authority, she should continue to improve with racing.
While she may stretch out in trip later on, Vamanos has displayed enough pace to be highly competitive over 1000m, especially with Lerena back in the irons and trainer Roy Magner’s string in fine fettle.
This is the sort of Highveld programme on which punters can lean heavily on one jockey and feel justified in doing so. Lerena’s four key rides offer sound formlines and clear potential for improvement.
Multiple bets anchored around his mounts should prove popular and there is every chance he delivers a treble or better on a card that plays directly to his strengths.
Clive Robinson
