There are strong fields for the two features – the Listed Christmas Handicap and the Grade 3 Flamboyant Stakes – at Greyville on Sunday.
And in both there is the feeling the favourites may flounder, allowing a nicely priced runner to get up. The Christmas Handicap (Race 6) is a Conditions race for all over 1600m where Crown Towers, with a merit rating of 117, is weighted to win ahead of Tristful and Solid Gold.
But Crown Towers, while having his third run after rest and is at his peak, is dropping in distance, Tristful has drawn in the car park and Solid Gold has not looked a true miler.
So, the answer may lie with next best Ikigai. He doesn’t boast the same recent profile as likely favourite and fellow Highveld raider and Sound Of Summer so expect decent odds.
But he was once merit rated a lofty 118 (rated to best Crown Towers by 0.5kg) versus Sound Of Summer’s 103. That rating was given to him after a powerful win in the Gauteng Guineas which is also over 1600m.
His form return over sprints recently suggests he could be ready to revel over the extra again and trainer Sean Tarry once again showed amid quiet times that he is the master at prepping them for features.
While Tarry also has a runner in the Flamboyant Stakes, Zimbaba, and she is weighted to win on current form, she has drawn widest and has not impressed in her two runs over the trip.
In fact, highly rated horses such as Love Bomb (prefers 1400m), Freestate Star (may be overrated based on one run) and Mount Laurel (been ages since she won and also no wins over the trip) also cannot be rely upon.
The spoils could go to Glory Days, an exceptionally well-bred daughter of Vercingetorix, the hottest stallion in South Africa at the moment. She looked to be in a league of her own when winning her penultimate over this track and trip and as a result, could be underrated by some way.
The Flamboyant Stakes (Race 7) is a conditions race for fillies and mares over 1600m.
The rest of the card is littered with the usual Rubik’s Cube type of difficulty with payouts to match but Amarandi does stand out in Race 2, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1200m.
By Clive Robinson
