In the ‘old days’ before merit ratings, a Graduation Plate was simply for maidens, one and two-time winners and the weights structured in three tiers accordingly, regardless of ratings.
Now we are faced with ‘Conditional’ Graduations and it’s out with the calculators and formguides.
A Conditional Graduation heads the card at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday in what could prove a tricky contest.
Tony Rivalland saddles Captain Casey, One of the highest rated horses in the race, who is effective over this trip and well in at the weights. He has been racing in feature company and should make a bold bid. Sun Blushed has his third run after a break for Michael Roberts and with Rachel Venniker’s allowance he looks well primed for this race and could prove the main opposition to the selection. Let The Flag Fly has been running in feature company and is well regarded by his trainer Tienie Prinsloo. He comes into the race with a handy galloping weight and along with Music of Life has useful recent form – the latter to weaker – but only has 50kg to shoulder which can make him dangerous.
The sixth is an open handicap but Princess Arlowe can deny her hefty handicap rating after shedding her maiden at just her third start. Glen Kotzen’s filly takes on some seasoned campaigners however, she won readily with first time blinkers and should have more to come. The former Corrine Bestel-trained Flying The Star was narrowly beaten last time out and goes well over course and distance. She has her first outing for Michael Roberts and with Rachel Venniker riding at her absolute minimum weight, the inference is obvious. Kom Naidoo sends out a couple of runners, Hereinafter possibly the pick. She is seldom far back and was caught late by the speedy Red Roses Too last time out. Divine Moonlight was well fancied in the market that day and only finished a head in front of Hereinafter but she did have the benefit of Venniker’s 1.5kg claim.
On of the better bets could be Lucky Miss in the seventh. She has been something of a frustration for Duncan Howells, finishing second rather than first on a number of occasions, but Howells appears to have found the right race for her to add to her winning tally. Woodland Retreat has been battling the handicappers given her lofty rating but they have slowly been giving in and the filly takes a further drop in the ratings. The trip should suit and Mike Miller’s charge rates a strong chance. National Star has been close-up at her last two and made a smart local debut for Sean Tarry. The trip suits and she will be in the firing line.
The card opener consists mainly of first timers but judging by stable comments a ‘springer’ is unlikely. Of those that have run, Future Flo took on a strong field in feature company last run for Michael Roberts after showing up well in his two previous starts. The opposition looks a little weaker here. Last One Standing nearly caused a major boil-over for Glen Kotzen when going close over course and distance on debut. If he can improve on that he must have a strong chance. At the other end of the barrier, Sean Tarry saddles Van Meijel that was a beaten odds-on favourite at only his second start. He was drawn wide in his first start around a turn and can make amends.
Wendy Whitehead’s filly Minogue made a smart debut at long odds over course and distance and she should come on from that effort. She has a strong chance in in the second what is a competitive maiden with many lightly raced runners. Cue The Rebel has shown up well in her two starts for Sean Tarry. She drifted a touch in the betting when making her Scottsville debut and can improve on that effort.
Mike Miller has a strong hand in the opening leg of the Pick 6 but it could pay to be with stable rider Tristan Godden who partners Ancient World who made good improvement at his second start and was running on strongly. The extra ground should suit. Stable companion Billy Of Tea enjoyed the extra last run when narrowly beaten and is also lightly raced. Imaginable ran poorly when favourite last time out but if Alyson’s Wright’s charge runs up to his previous form, he will be a strong contender.
Grandi Orecchie has been in grand form for Gareth van Zyl and can make it a hat-trick of wins in the fourth. Her last two successes have been on the poly but she has also won on the turf. She took a five-point rise in the handicap for her last effort but Van Zyl has booked useful 4kg claimer Trent Mayhew for the ride. The strapping mare Aquae Sulis is knocking on the door for her seventh win and did improve when three lengths back to Grandi Orecchie when last they met. They meet on the same weight terms given the former’s weight allowance but the switch to the turf could see the tables turned. Sea Goddess was a close-up second at long odds last run and the stable is starting to turn while Midnight Crystal has been confined to the poly at recent outings but is effective on the turf and is not out of it.
In the last, Captain Who has shown improved form since being tried in blinkers. He has been taking on stronger in those races and has taken a further drop in the ratings. Louis Goosen has booked leading rider Calvin Habib and with a drop in class the gelding should be a strong contender. Justfortheepenny is never far off them but tends to miss the break. This could be his last show over the course and distance where he won first time out some six season’s back. Goosen has a second string to his bow in Rodriquez who was touched off over course and distance last time out. He has a wide draw to contend with but given the recent death of his popular namesake, he will be a sentimental punt for many.
